Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 19.808500 21.469268 23.257424 25.334968 27.693872 30.302683 33.425103
2025-09-28 17.717919 20.106920 22.862018 26.313426 30.578265 35.753660 42.634488
2025-10-05 15.711737 18.433308 21.735098 26.117912 31.914785 39.523455 50.640381
2025-10-12 14.314889 17.245772 20.950423 26.111876 33.353345 43.558123 59.876642
2025-10-19 13.347356 16.446683 20.505169 26.407111 35.146200 48.322763 71.390026
2025-10-26 12.422346 15.584118 19.843906 26.261249 36.208039 52.123929 82.419606
2025-11-02 11.616703 14.794067 19.179060 25.989093 36.979307 55.543861 93.823984
2025-11-09 10.994688 14.196040 18.713405 25.932564 38.043950 59.630733 107.996769
2025-11-16 10.416339 13.608693 18.200494 25.724743 38.793564 63.266610 122.669449
2025-11-23 9.900814 13.071102 17.709854 25.485445 39.430120 66.795316 138.706396
2025-11-30 9.444402 12.587132 17.257798 25.252473 40.027431 70.359693 156.705255
2025-12-07 9.062738 12.188426 16.904004 25.141861 40.826363 74.536084 179.026450
2025-12-14 8.656686 11.735738 16.443163 24.818506 41.203104 77.956750 201.786385
2025-12-21 8.537506 11.714171 16.669639 25.737128 44.244459 88.726931 261.696122
2025-12-28 8.209300 11.347436 16.304185 25.534944 44.893365 93.589640 303.137532
2026-01-04 7.942957 11.063020 16.055047 25.523658 45.959696 99.977985 361.333302
2026-01-11 7.748633 10.881896 15.966036 25.806899 47.743432 109.151025 452.987156
2026-01-18 7.497192 10.594983 15.675739 25.664843 48.501711 115.451713 541.083709
2026-01-25 7.244107 10.293071 15.340585 25.401200 48.923982 120.847488 638.498833
2026-02-01 7.040712 10.063255 15.118153 25.346347 49.866757 128.529712 788.321198
2026-02-08 6.828550 9.809218 14.837630 25.145240 50.402148 134.991286 958.633646
2026-02-15 6.625175 9.561208 14.554250 24.913697 50.825018 141.278026 1171.061456
2026-02-22 6.434810 9.327358 14.284195 24.688261 51.235123 147.794961 1450.331360